Weekly Wonk: What latest revenue estimate shows for FY 26 | The smartest tax cut Oklahoma can make | Small moments of courage | Capitol Update | #OKLeg Valentines

What's up this week at Oklahoma Policy Institute? The Weekly Wonk shares our most recent publications and other resources to help you stay informed about Oklahoma.

SUNDAY, FEBRUARY 16, 2025 Subscribe // View latest headlines OK Policy comments on revenue numbers estimated during February's Board of Equalization meeting   The Board of Equalization on Friday certified an $8.273 billion estimate in General Revenue collections for the Legislature to appropriate in Fiscal Year 2026. This is a decrease of $311 million, or about 3.6 percent, from last year's February estimate, which sets the maximum amount the Legislature can appropriate for the upcoming fiscal year. [Aanahita Ervin / OK Policy] Commentary: Small moment of courage can lead to big shifts   Chaos and uncertainty are swirling around our federal government. A growing number of state and federal elected officials seem more focused on gaining attention through outrage than on seeking solutions that address our shared problems, further harming communities that have been historically and purposefully marginalized. [Shiloh Kantz / Tulsa World] OK Policy Valentines   This Valentine's Day, OK Policy wanted to express our passion for state policy issues here at the intersection of love and advocacy. We're excited to present a collection of policy-themed Valentine's Day messages that you can share with your friends and loved ones. [OK Policy] A peek at the governor's FY2026 budget proposal (Capitol Update)   Despite last year's repeal of the sales tax on groceries and additional spending for private schools that triggered the revenue shortfall this year, the governor recommended a personal and corporate income tax cut that when fully implemented will reduce state revenue by approximately $500 million. He also championed removing the $250 million cap on spending for private schools. [Steve Lewis / Capitol Update] Policy Matters: The smartest tax cut Oklahoma can make   What if I told you there was a way to put hundreds of dollars back into the pockets of hardworking Oklahomans—families, seniors, veterans, and people with disabilities—without jeopardizing the state's budget? Good news: There is. [Shiloh Kantz / The Journal Record] 'We can't afford it:' Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt wants to cut the state's income tax (audio): During his State of the State address earlier this month, Gov. Stitt called for "half and a path" – his term for a half-percent income tax cut that would put us on a "path to zero" income tax. OK Policy's Aanahita Ervin says the state cannot afford even a half-percent income tax cut. She urged the Legislature to look at modernizing tax credits instead. [The Frontier]   A conversation about the governor's proposed tax cut plan and more (video): OK Policy's Dave Hamby joins Perspectives with Sam Jones in a conversation about the governor's tax cut proposals, targeted tax credits, and the need for bipartisanship. [RSU Public Television via YouTube] "Collecting 6-, 7-, 8-year-old kids' addresses and immigration status in the state of Oklahoma, that's not a public safety issue."   - Governor Kevin Stitt said regarding State Supt. Ryan Walters' recent proposal to require citizenship checks for public school enrollment. [Oklahoma Voice] 37% - Among tipped workers, 37% earn so little that they pay no federal income tax and so would not benefit from the tax cut that would exempt tips. Additionally, only 5% of workers in the bottom earnings quartile earn tips and could possibly benefit from the proposal. [Brookings] 29% - About 29% of Oklahoma families, or nearly 3 in 10 families, received some sort of public assistance such as Supplemental Security Income (SSI), cash public assistance income, or Food Stamps/SNAP) in the previous 12 months. [KIDS COUNT] 63% - In a 2023 survey by the American Communities Project, 63% of Americans said their communities were going in the right direction, including majorities in every community type the researchers looked at. Meanwhile, only 18% of Americans said the country was going in the right direction. In some communities, the share who said this was as low as 10%. [Pew Research] 29.5% - The number of individuals in Oklahoma experiencing homelessness in 2024 increased 29.5% when compared to 2007. [U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development via OK Policy] $1,530 - The projected tax increase for middle income Americans if President Trump's tax proposals were in effect in 2026. Under this proposal, the richest 1% would receive an average tax cut of about $36,300 and the next richest 4% would receive an average tax cut of about $7,200. All other groups would see a tax increase with the hike on the middle 20% at about $1,500 and the increase on the lowest-income 20% of Americans at about $800. [Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy] Committee Substitute   A committee substitute is a revised version of legislation proposed for consideration and adoption by a committee. The committee substitute replaces, in whole, the original bill that was referred to a committee, including conference committees.   It is quite common for the language of a committee substitute to be entirely different from previous versions of a bill, especially in the House of Representatives when a bill is introduced as a shell bill. The House and Senate each have rules specifying when and how a committee substitute may be introduced.   Look up more key terms to understand Oklahoma politics and government here. Opinion: Contacting lawmakers to make change works. Just ask Sen. Dusty Deevers   For anyone thinking it's pointless to contact your lawmaker, remember state Sen. Dusty Deevers. He proposed a mean-spirited bill this legislative session to cut services to special education students, resulting in a quick groundswell of opposition that had him backtracking. It's a lesson on how grassroots work can be successful.   State lawmakers have filed more than 3,100 bills this session. Obviously, not all of those are going to make it far. Some of those are good, and some are terrible. But if one or 100 get your attention, don't keep your thoughts within your bubble.   Tell your representatives when you don't like something — but also when you do. Then, when the next election comes around, remember how many listened, how many responded.    Representative democracy works best when representatives know their constituents' thoughts.   [Ginnie Graham / Tulsa World] From OK Policy: Find your elected officials "No tax on tips" will harm more workers than it helps: Now that lawmakers in a multitude of states have supported the idea of not taxing tips, it's worth unpacking just how incredibly foolish and dangerous these proposals are. In summary, exempting tips from taxes would: 1) help very few workers and undermine pay increases for many more; 2) expand the use of tipped work—a system rife with discrimination and worker abuse— potentially leading to consumers being asked to tip on virtually every purchase; and 3) deplete state and federal budgets and create new avenues of tax avoidance, especially for high earners. [Economic Policy Institute] How Would Children Fare Under Proposed Cuts to Federal Spending?: Federal spending on children is a good investment, with large returns in both the short and long terms for children and society. Analyses from the Urban Institute's Kids' Share project tell us what proposed federal cuts to programs that support children could mean. [Urban Institute]   Many Trump Administration Fiscal and Regulatory Actions Are Unlawful: During its first few weeks, the Trump Administration has unleashed a flurry of measures to radically reshape the federal government. Many of these moves are overtly unlawful. This paper identifies the legal problems with many of the most prominent actions: freezing funding, amending or repealing rules, and denying citizenship to children born in the United States. [Center on Budget and Policy Priorities] Obeying Court Orders Isn't Optional [Brennan Center for Justice] Study: Rural Homelessness Is Underestimated and Exacerbated by Opioid Epidemic: Rural people without housing may live in different situations — with relatives, or in tents, or in cars, Ballard said — instead of living in shelters or on the street. That makes finding and identifying them difficult at best. And there is a greater prevalence of homelessness because of the nature of rural community economics. [The Daily Yonder] There will be pain: Continuing low tax rates for the rich and corporations will hurt working families: Extending Trump's Tax Cuts and Jobs Act will have painful trade-offs for the U.S. economy and most Americans. The "tax gap"—the amount of taxes owed but not paid each year—is currently larger than the overall fiscal gap. It is driven by the richest U.S. households and businesses cheating the law and underpaying taxes. [Economic Policy Institute] Support Our Work with a Donation What's up this week at Oklahoma Policy Institute? The Weekly Wonk shares our most recent publications and other resources to help you stay informed about Oklahoma. Numbers of the Day and Policy Notes are from our daily news briefing, In The Know. Click here to subscribe to In The Know. Contact Oklahoma Policy Institute 907 S. Detroit Ave #1005 Tulsa, OK 74120 United States  918-794-3944 | info@okpolicy.org   Connect with us:   If you believe you received this message in error or wish to no longer receive email from us, please unsubscribe.