Tracing the rise and resignation of Ryan Walters (Capitol Update) The most remarkable — if not the most important — happening in state government last week was the announcement by State Superintendent Ryan Walters that he is resigning with sixteen months left in his term of office. His departure may remove one near-constant source of conflict in the state involving the Legislature, the Governor, and Oklahoma's public school system. [Steve Lewis / Capitol Update] |
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"What the government spends money on is a demonstration of our country's priorities." – Rachel Snyderman, managing director of economic policy at the Bipartisan Policy Center and former White House budget official, commenting on the federal government shutdown and the debates over how public funds should be allocated. [Associated Press] |
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125 - The total number of Oklahoma state legislative seats up for election in 2026. That includes all 101 House seats and 24 of the 48 Senate seats. [National Conference for State Legislatures] $110 - The amount an Oklahoma parent qualifying for the state child tax credit would receive starting in 2026 — just 5% of the $2,200 federal credit. Expanding the credit's size and reach would give families more meaningful support and strengthen efforts to reduce child poverty. [National Conference of State Legislatures] $3,600 - The per-child state tax credit amount needed in Oklahoma for children under 18 to cut child poverty in half. For children under 6, the amount would need to be slightly higher — $4,320 per child. Well-designed child tax credits not only reduce poverty but also improve children's health, educational outcomes, and long-term economic stability. [Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy] 114% - The expected jump in annual premiums for people who get their health insurance through the Affordable Care Act — the federal program that set up online marketplaces where families can buy coverage — if enhanced premium tax credits expire at the end of 2025. Average costs would rise from $888 in 2025 to $1,904 in 2026, more than doubling what families pay for coverage. [KFF] 82.6% - The share of private schools in Oklahoma located in urban or suburban areas. This means that school choice programs not only disproportionately benefit wealthier families but also do little for those living in rural Oklahoma, where private school options are scarce. [Learning Policy Institute] |
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State Aid/State Aid Formula State aid represents the funds that are appropriated by the State Legislature for school districts, and distributed by the State Department of Education through the State Aid Formula. State aid is based on three categories: foundation aid, incentive aid, and transportation aid. Foundation aid, by far the largest category, is determined primarily by the number of students attending in each district, with allowances made for various student characteristics represented as grade and categorical weights. For example, a 3rd grader "weighs" 1.051 points in the state aid formula, while a 1st or 2nd grader counts as 1.351 points. Other points are added due to a variety of factors, such as for special education students (which varies based on the student's disability), gifted students, economically disadvantaged students, or transportation needs in isolated rural districts, to determine a weighted average daily membership (WADM). Historically, state aid was based on the higher of the current or two previous years' student counts (WADM). Thus, if a district's student count increased, the State Aid was adjusted in the current year. If a district's student count decreased, state aid did not decrease for two years. However, legislation passed in 2021 (HB 2078) eliminated the two-year look-back provision; beginning with the 2022-23 school year, state aid is based only on the current year or previous year's student count. The state aid calculated using these student counts is then reduced for local revenue collections by subtracting "chargeables", which include a district's ad valorem property taxes, motor vehicle collections, gross production taxes, school land earnings, county 4-mill taxes, and rural electric association taxes. Decreasing state aid for those districts that bring in more local tax revenue helps to equalize overall funding between wealthier and poorer areas of the state. About 40 mostly rural school districts receive enough local property and gross production tax revenue that they are "off the formula" and do not receive state aid funding, except for small amounts of transportation aid. Districts receive an initial state aid allocation in August and a revised mid-year allocation in December or January. Look up more key terms to understand Oklahoma politics and government here. |
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Editorial: What's next for the public schools of Oklahoma? It's up to us After a storm passes through, residents of a community come out into the sunshine, look around at the wreckage, and start figuring out what to do next. That's the job for Oklahomans now that state schools Superintendent Ryan Walters has resigned, leaving in his wake an unfortunate path of educational debris. Gov. Kevin Stitt has taken the first step by naming Lindel Fields, former superintendent and CEO of Tri County Tech in Bartlesville, to be the interim superintendent until voters can go to the polls next year and choose a successor for the next four years. Under new leadership, improvement in our state's public school system needs to happen quickly. Our embarrassment that Oklahoma schools are the bottom of national reading and math proficiency rankings has been compounded by reports from the business community that our bad schools are hurting our reputation as a good place to live, to work and to invest. [Read the full editorial from the Oklahoman Editorial Board] |
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What history tells us about the 2026 midterm elections: Midterm elections typically result in losses for the sitting president's party, driven by voter fatigue and shifting political momentum — an effect that becomes even more pronounced during a president's second term, known as the "six-year itch." Political forecasts and public polling suggest that these traditional dynamics may persist in 2026, even amid efforts to rewrite the rulebook. To alter the usual trajectory, the president's party would need to mobilize low-propensity voters, nationalize messaging, and frame the election as a referendum — shifting from local campaigns to broader ideological high-stakes contests. [Brookings Institute] State Child Tax Credits Boosted Financial Security for Families and Children in 2025: State child tax credits (CTCs) are proving to be powerful tools for boosting financial security among low- and middle-income families, and fifteen states have now enacted or expanded these credits. Key design features — such as making credits refundable, extending benefits to immigrant families, increasing benefits for younger children, eliminating phase-in requirements, and indexing amounts to inflation — significantly increase their effectiveness. Though recent federal reforms increased the CTC, some limits (like on refundability and access for immigrant households) still leave many children without full benefit. For states considering policy change, crafting credits with equity, broad eligibility, and sustainable funding can help reduce child poverty and make the tax code fairer. [Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy] State Child Tax Credits and Child Poverty: A 50-State Analysis: State child tax credits (CTCs) are among the most effective policies states can use to reduce child poverty and strengthen family financial stability. When structured to be fully refundable, accessible to families with little or no earnings, and adjusted for inflation, they deliver the greatest impact for low-income households and communities of color. While costs vary by design, these investments are fiscally feasible for most states and bring broad social benefits by reducing hardship, narrowing inequities, and supporting children's long-term success. [Institute on Taxation and Economic Policy] How an ACA Premium Spike Will Affect Family Budgets, and Voters: A surge in ACA premiums — if enhanced subsidy support lapses — will squeeze household budgets already stretched by rising costs for food, housing, and utilities. The Affordable Care Act created health insurance marketplaces where families can buy coverage, often with federal subsidies. For many families, the additional health care burden could amount to a sizable share of basic living expenses, amplifying financial stress. Politically, such cost shocks can erode trust in government and shift voter behavior, as health care becomes a direct measure of people's economic stability. [KFF] Universal school choice programs mostly benefit the wealthy unless policymakers act to prevent it: School choice programs, when structured without safeguards, tend to reinforce advantages for higher-income families rather than expand access broadly. Because private school options are often scarce in rural or lower-income areas — and because wealthier families have more resources to navigate admissions and cover remaining costs — the benefits skew upward. To counter this imbalance, policymakers can design income-based subsidies, target resources toward underserved regions, and set participation rules that prioritize equity. Without such measures, universal choice risks worsening existing educational divides instead of expanding opportunity. [Brookings Institution] |
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What's up this week at Oklahoma Policy Institute? The Weekly Wonk shares our most recent publications and other resources to help you stay informed about Oklahoma. Numbers of the Day and Policy Notes are from our daily news briefing, In The Know. Click here to subscribe to In The Know. |
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